Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week Moving Average: Signal for Potential Bear Market Low
Bitcoin closed on a weekly basis above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025, ending a 45-week period below this level. Historically, reclaiming this average has signaled the definitive bear market low in four out of five completed bear markets.
Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025.
This ended a 45-week period below this level.
Historically, this confirmed the low in 4 out of 5 bear markets.
Bitcoin's low on June 30 was $58,525, with a Sunday close of $78,786.
Story
Bitcoin has reached a significant technical milestone by closing on a weekly basis above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025. This ended a 45-week period during which the price remained below this level. According to Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research, reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically often served as confirmation that bear market lows have been reached. In four out of five completed bear markets, the initial breach above this average indicated that the low was definitively reached. Bitcoin's low on June 30 was $58,525, and its Sunday closing price was $78,786. The current price of $81,798 is well above this average, reinforcing the perspective that the market may have found its bottom. While a single weekly close does not confirm a new bull market, the historical correlation is a strong signal. Investors should, however, remember that technical indicators are not infallible and macroeconomic factors can continue to play a role.
Issue context
The crypto market shows significant strength with Bitcoin above the $81,000 mark and Ethereum at $2,670. This positive development is largely driven by substantial inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which fully offset previous outflows and propelled the price upward. Concurrently, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025, a historically significant technical signal suggesting a potential end to the bear market. Meanwhile, the activities of tech giants like Apple and Google in stablecoins and blockchain signal growing mainstream interest in the technology.
Current market movements show a blend of institutional interest and technical recovery. While ETF inflows and the breach of key moving averages are positive signals, you should always consider the inherent volatility of the crypto market and the risks associated with token unlocks and speculative sectors like meme coins. Careful evaluation of facts and a clear risk appetite are crucial.
Market pulse
BTC
$81.8K
+1.71% 24h / +5% 7d
Fear & Greed
70
Greed
BTC Funding
+0.0075%
20 perp markets · OI $60.9B
BTC Open Interest
$60.9B
Top venue Binance (Futures) · 24h vol $64.6B · basis +0.043%
More from this issue
This story is part of the Biturai Market Brief and is for informational purposes only. No investment advice.