Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Falling U.S. Treasury Yields Post-Midterms
Analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will peak before mid-November and decline thereafter. Historical data from midterm election years supports this forecast, potentially alleviating pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen expects 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to peak before mid-November.
Historical data from midterm election years supports the forecast of declining yields thereafter.
Falling yields could alleviate pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
However, Cowen still expects long-term interest rates to rise over the next 10-20 years.
Story
Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will peak before mid-November. On October 1, the yield reached 5.342%. Cowen expects yields to begin falling in mid-November, shortly after the midterm elections. This forecast is supported by historical data from the 2018 and 2022 midterm election years, where 10-year Treasury yields also peaked between early October and mid-November, followed by declines. Falling yields could alleviate pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets, as lower bond returns make alternative investments more attractive. However, it is important to note that Cowen also anticipates long-term interest rates to rise over the next 10-20 years, which could limit sustained relief for non-yielding assets. While Cowen did not directly mention Bitcoin, he indicated that interest rate developments are likely to influence risk assets. This macroeconomic development could have a significant impact on broader crypto market sentiment.
Issue context
The crypto market experienced slight pullbacks on October 6, with total market capitalization down 2.4% to $2.9 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $85,269 and has encountered resistance near $87,000 three times since September 23. This technical hurdle is crucial, as a sustained break above $87,000 could pave the way for Bitcoin to challenge its eight-month high and provide upward momentum for the broader market. Concurrently, Ethereum developers are preparing for the Glamsterdam test, which aims to triple the gas limit on the Sepolia testnet to enhance network scalability. These technical advancements and ongoing regulatory discussions in the U.S., particularly the CFTC's proposals for leveraged crypto trading, are key themes influencing market sentiment and future developments.
The market shows a slight correction on October 6, but underlying technical and fundamental developments remain dynamic. Pay attention to Bitcoin's critical resistance levels and Ethereum's scaling progress. Regulatory news and macroeconomic forecasts can introduce short-term volatility. Stay informed and consider the risks associated with leveraged positions and overall market sentiment.
Market pulse
Fear & Greed
73
Greed
BTC Funding
+0.0018%
20 perp markets · Open Interest $54.6B
BTC Open Interest
$54.6B
24h volume $62.8B · basis +0.054%
ETH Funding
+0.0015%
20 perp markets · Open Interest $38.8B
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This story is part of the Biturai Market Brief and is for informational purposes only. No investment advice.