US Midterm Elections: Historical Trends and Macroeconomic Challenges for the Market
The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, could influence traditional financial markets and the crypto market. Historically, the S&P 500 has seen average gains of 13.7% in the year following US midterm elections since 1982, with no losses in those periods. Data from DWF Labs also shows positive Bitcoin performance after previous midterms, though with significant volatility in the intervening months.
The S&P 500 has historically seen average gains of 13.7% in the year following US midterm elections since 1982.
Bitcoin showed gains of 25%, 45%, and 92% after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, respectively.
Despite positive historical trends, Bitcoin can experience significant volatility in the months following elections.
Macroeconomic factors like oil prices and yields could challenge historical patterns.
Story
The US midterm elections, taking place on November 3, 2026, are a significant macroeconomic event that can influence both traditional financial markets and the crypto market. Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 has seen average gains of 13.7% in the year following US midterm elections since 1982, with no losses in those periods. Similar observations exist for Bitcoin: DWF Labs reports gains of 25%, 45%, and 92% in the year after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, respectively. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin also experienced significant volatility in the months following these elections. For instance, three months after the 2014 and 2018 elections, Bitcoin traded 31% and 46% below its closing price on election day. While a divided government has historically been favored by markets, CFRA expects Democrats to win both the House and likely the Senate. This could lead to a less favorable but still positive market performance. Nevertheless, current macroeconomic factors such as oil prices, Treasury yields, and the performance of the AI sector could challenge these historical patterns and influence future market direction.
Issue context
The crypto market is experiencing a downturn, with the total market capitalization decreasing by 3.17% over the last 24 hours to $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin and Ethereum are also seeing declines, while the Fear & Greed Index registers "Fear" at 26. Despite these price drops, funding rates for BTC, ETH, and SOL perpetual markets remain positive, suggesting that long positions are still paying shorts. This issue examines recent security incidents, macroeconomic influences, and regulatory developments shaping the market during this period of uncertainty.
Current market conditions show increased volatility and uncertainty. While Binance's fund flows are stabilizing, recent hacks serve as a reminder of ongoing security risks within the ecosystem. Pay attention to macroeconomic developments and regulatory changes, as these can continue to heavily influence market sentiment and liquidity. Your risk appetite should account for these factors.
Market pulse
BTC
$76.8K
-1.54% 24h / -4.25% 7d
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
BTC Funding
+0.0085%
20 perp markets · Open Interest $53.5B
BTC Open Interest
$53.5B
24h volume $60.6B · basis +0.014%
More from this issue
This story is part of the Biturai Market Brief and is for informational purposes only. No investment advice.